Another action-packed MLB Saturday is upon us, and there are 17 games to bet on today, including a pair of doubleheaders.
Our analysts are on three of those matchups, including a player prop, an underdog, and a running line. We have bets on the Rays vs. Tigers, Red Sox vs. Royals and Rockies vs. Diamondbacks.
Here are our top three bets from Saturday’s Major League Baseball slate.
MLB odds and picks
Rays vs. Tigers
Doug Zifel: Detroit has been an attacking roster with props all season long as they have been in the top 10 in strikeout rate per team. However, they struck at an even higher rate in the second half as they hold the third-highest rating since the All-Star break.
Shane McClanahan should be drooling over this game. McClanahan enters this majors quarterback on strikeout for the season and he has a strikeout rate in the top three percent in the league.
Believe it or not, that total might be a little too low for McClanahan. He’s exceeded that number in 55% of his starts this season, giving us -122 implied odds of him exceeding again. With how bad Detroit has been, they have a double-digit advantage here.
Red Sox vs. Royals
Sean Zerillo: Although the Royals have some fine young at-bats in Bobby Witt Jr., MJ Melendez, Vinnie Pasquantino and Nick Pratto, they haven’t been as adept at developing young starting pitchers.
However, former first-round picks Brady Singer (3.75 xERA) and Daniel Lynch (4.22 xERA, 4.26 xFIP, 4.17 SIERA) are having stellar seasons, and both could be on their next team. winning.
Lynch has seen a slight increase in speed for the season – adding a tick to his fastball (94.5mph in his last start) compared to both earlier this year and 2021 (average of 93.7mph ). And he’s been using that fastball more aggressively lately — picking the pitch at a 60% clip in his last three starts, up from 44% in his previous starts.
Aside from a shaky outing on June 22 against the Angels (4 2/3 IP, 5 BB, 5 K), Lynch has reached another level in his last six starts (28 IP, 11 BB, 37 K, 2, 98 xFIP) and remains undervalued. in the betting markets.
Nathan Eovaldi (4.19 xERA, 3.36 xFIP, 3.45 SIERA) is an odd pitcher to handicap. He offers solid batting numbers, good control and rushing ball rate, but has had a home run issue that comes up every now and then (1.35 HR/9.15% HR/FB since 2016) .
Since allowing the Astros five home runs on May 17, Eovaldi has thrown a 3.91, 2.92 FIP and 3.24 xFIP ERA in nine starts (46 IP) – while allowing 0.78 HR/9 When he can dodge the long ball, he’s a rock-solid No. 2 starter.
While the Royals have been relatively helpless this season (88 HR, 27th in MLB), since adding Pasquantino to the roster in late June, they rank closer to the middle of the pack offensively (101 wrC+, 18th) and 21st in circuits (31).
In this game, I projected the Royals as +105 underdogs, and I’d bet their moneyline would go down to +114. You can also play their first five innings moneyline (F5) up to +113 or better.
Rockies vs. Diamondbacks
Jules Posner: Merrill Kelly has not conceded an earned run in his two post-All-Star starts. He’ll be able to take on a Rockies offense that’s been in the middle of the pack against RHP on the road for the past two weeks, but Kelly has only given up two earned runs to the Rockies in his two starts against them. this season.
Antonio Senzatela will be his opponent and he’s struggled a lot on the road in 2022. He has a 6.16 ERA, and while his peripherals indicate he’s been a bit unlucky, a little isn’t a lot. Additionally, the Diamondbacks have one of the most underrated home offenses against RHP. They have a bunch of tough southpaw bats throughout their roster and the game looks like a good opportunity for them to get some runs.
Additionally, the Rockies’ bullpen has been in disarray over the past month and they don’t really have any reliable left-handed options to disrupt the Diamondbacks’ field advantage.
The Diamondbacks’ running line is in more money and it needs to be taken because it looks like the books are sleeping on their powerful home offense. The Snakes also moved a game over .500 at home with their win last night and the Rockies fell to 17-35 on the road.
If the D’backs running line is in more money, take that all day.