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Russia has likely lost a third of its ground combat forces in Ukraine and the remaining forces are exhausted and have been unable to make territorial advances in recent weeks, British intelligence officials said early Sunday.
Russia “is now likely to have suffered casualties of a third of the ground combat force it deployed in February,” Britain’s MoD said in an update.
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“Russia’s Donbass offensive has lost momentum and is significantly behind schedule,” the report said. “Despite small initial advances, Russia has failed over the past month to make any significant territorial gains while maintaining a consistently high level of attrition.”
The UK government also said those losses will “almost certainly” be worsening as tactical and support equipment continues to run short.
“These delays will almost certainly be exacerbated by the loss of critical assets such as bridging equipment and intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance drones,” the UK government said. “Russian bridging equipment was in short supply throughout the conflict, slowing and limiting offensive maneuvers.”
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The report added, “Russian forces are increasingly being constrained by…low morale and reduced combat effectiveness.”
The British Ministry of Defense predicted that the Russian armed forces would not return to the initial successes unless these conditions changed significantly.
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“Under current conditions, Russia is unlikely to dramatically accelerate its rate of advance over the next 30 days.”
Russia first invaded Ukraine on February 24, and experts predicted that Ukrainian troops would be forced to surrender within weeks.
Conversely, Ukrainian forces have repelled the attackers, and a wave of international support has helped the smaller country stay in the fight.